A recession so contrived and man-made that every economist, politician, business owner, college student, CEO, rapper, and professional athlete could see it coming in real time within months….

Take a picture, you may never see anything so obvious again. The child could have foreseen it.

At some point, the person responsible for price stability should probably look in the mirror and say, “For whatever reason, I’m not very good at this. Or whatever method I’m using to make decisions isn’t going well or producing positive results.’

I do not think that this should be required of the people we put in charge of our institutions.

For example, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. If you find yourself vacillating wildly between stimulus and austerity in any given year, it might be time to stop and reconsider. It could be the data you use or the way you use it. Maybe it’s your instincts. It could be a combination of things. The pendulum should swing, but not both ways all the time. It’s not a cycle, it’s a circus.

If your forecasting skills have led you to the conclusion that you won’t need to raise rates in 2022, only to see the steepest rate hike on record a few months later, you may not be doing very well. If you buy mortgages and Treasuries to stimulate the economy in March and then deliberately try to crash the markets and create a recession in September, you’re probably not the right person to manage the money supply. You can’t be a “price stability guy.”

Just saying.

I’m sure you want well. I’m sure you’re doing your best. I’m sure there are issues that the rest of us don’t see. I will understand. But it doesn’t matter. what are you doing Literally.

These are not numbers in a spreadsheet. We are talking about playing with people’s lives. The social costs of separation from work are evident at the aggregate level. On a local and personal level, they can be disastrous. Creating huge bubbles for one calendar year only to have them burst the next calendar year is irresponsible. Should be somewhere between 90 mph and hitting the electronic brake. Is this not taught in graduate school? Most of us are taught moderation in elementary school. Marshmallow test. Impulse control. Sleep time. Listening.

Zero interest rates plus fiscal and monetary stimulus with 40% housing growth and high stocks were laughable policies. That’s what everyone said at the time. Here’s me, for example, last May: Stimulating the housing market is psychotic. An equally ridiculous policy is the record rate hikes, which are piled on top of each other before an attempt is made to test whether the first ones are having the desired effect. Why wait to see if the economy cools down when we can just crash it and be absolutely sure? Ok, I guess that’s one strategy…

I don’t think anything that relies on data goes well. If it got us here, I think we can try something else without sacrificing anything. Let’s try depending on common sense, see if it goes a little better. Or pass it on to someone else.

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