India’s edible oil imports are likely to be lower in the oil year 2022-23 (November-October), if forecasts by Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International, are any indication.
In his video presentation recorded at the 25th Globoil India, he estimated Indian imports at 13.65 million tonnes (tonnes) in 2022-23 against 13.84 million tonnes in 2021-22.
Explaining the rationale behind his predictions, he said that India currently imports vegetable oils excessively. India imports too much in August, September and October. As a result, end-October stocks, which are the beginning stocks for next year, will be very high. “This is one of the reasons that we will import less next year,” he said.
Also, India’s soybean, canola and oil palm production will be better next year.
He estimated India’s soybean oil imports at 3.65 million tonnes in 2022-2023. (4.13 million tons in 2021-2022), palm oil in 7.7 million tons (7.65 million tons) and sunflower oil in 2.2 million tons (1.93 million tons).
Stating that India has been very lucky with the monsoon this year, he said continued rainfall will also benefit rabi mustard seed planting. He said consumption growth has resumed and oilseed production has now also expanded.
Production of palm oil
Regarding global palm oil production, he said Malaysia will produce 18.2-18.5 million tonnes in 2022.
While his earlier estimate was 19 tonnes, he lowered it due to factors such as labor shortages in Malaysia.
Stating that Indonesia’s palm oil production will be 3 million tonnes more than last year, he said the Indonesian government had made a big mistake by banning palm oil exports.
The combined export tax and levy of almost $550 per tonne was also a mistake and led to local shortages and very high prices. As a result of the ban, Indonesian stocks are very high and now producers are suffering.
Calling on the Indonesian government to remove all export taxes and duties by Dec. 31, he said the move could help speed up exports and bring local stocks back to normal.
He said there was a big recovery in canola and canola production in 2022. In Canada alone, production will increase by 5-6 tons due to good rainfall.
He said the production of Indian mustard seeds in 2022-23 is set to touch new records again.
In addition, any ceasefire in the Ukrainian conflict would dramatically improve supplies, he said.
He said the USDA is being very aggressive in reducing the US soybean crop. Although the extension of La Nina for a third straight year is a bad sign for South American soybeans, record production can be expected thanks to better seeds and strong local currency values, he said.
Speaking about sunflower production, he said that if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict stops or slows down, more sunflower seeds and sunflower oil should be exported. He said the conflict in Ukraine must end before Christmas because Russian troops want to return home for Christmas.
September 23, 2022