The law could force women to travel outside the state to receive some reproductive health services and, as abortion advocates say, restrict access to quality care.

And that would be a “shock to the political system” with the potential to reverse the midterm election cycle, which could otherwise be a solid year for Republicans, said Richard Chuba, a Michigan veteran veteran of Glengariff Group Inc.

“As a rule, in the by-elections, the party in power in the White House is being lacquered,” Chuba said, referring to Democrats. “This is the problem that fundamentally changes this equation because they are independent so strongly supported leaving Rowe v. Wade in place. ”

With the Conservative court due to rule by the end of June, most major Michigan political candidates have already taken a stand on what could become a state-level problem if the Supreme Court again gives governors and state legislatures ample opportunities to establish abortion policies.

Competitors for Republican governor James Craig, Kevin Rinke, Gareth Soldano and Tudar Dixon have said they will abide by the 1931 abortion ban if Rowe is repealed. Republican candidates for attorney general, Tom Leonard, Matthew Depernay and Ryan Berman, say they will enforce the ban if elected by the state’s top law enforcement officials.

Rowe vs. Wade “This is complete and utter nonsense,” DePern said at a forum with rivals for the Republican nomination on Friday, touting his tough stance against any permissible exceptions to the abortion ban, which could include saving a mother’s life or pregnancy caused by rape or incest. “True conservatives … understand that life begins at conception.”

Democratic officials have vowed to defend abortion rights, but have limited options ahead of the November election because Republicans now control both houses of the Michigan Legislature.

Gov. Gothen Whitmer, a staunch proponent of abortion, lobbied lawmakers to lift the 1931 ban, a request that Republican leaders have so far mocked. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, who is also being re-elected, says she will not enforce the state-level ban while in office.

“My re-election is not all that is in November,” Whitmer said in a recent fundraising letter, telling supporters that “women’s right to choose will also be on the ballot.”

This may be true, regardless of whether the Rowe Supreme Court overturns or upholds: reproductive rights advocates are preparing a petition for a potential measure of state voting by 2022 that would ask voters to guarantee a woman the right to an abortion to the viability of the fetus. If approved, the proposed amendment to the Michigan Constitution would go beyond the 1931 law.

“The threat of abortion is now on our doorstep,” said Nicole Wells Stallworth, executive director of Michigan’s Planned Parenthood Advocates, which supports the petition along with the Michigan ACLU and another organization called Michigan Voices.

“Many candidates understand this is an important issue and they plan to participate in it,” Stallworth told Michigan Bridge, stressing the importance of state and legislative elections. “But voters, we need to work hard to make sure they understand that this is real: access to abortion is at stake.”

“Fundamental question”

Abortion has traditionally been a successful issue for Republicans who have sought evangelical and other voters in Michigan and across the country, promising to oppose a procedure that abortionists say is tantamount to murder.

Although polls suggest abortions not a single election a problem for all evangelicals, “it’s a question where they’re pretty sure they’re on the right side and the other side is evil,” said Christine Cobes Do Mez, a professor of history at the University of Calvin who has studied and written about the Crossroads of Faith and Politics.

Donald Trump’s promise to appoint “decent” Supreme Court justices in the event of a presidential election probably played at least some role in gaining the support of religiously motivated voters in 2016, despite a personal history that included several divorces and obvious comments that objectified women.

Trump further nominated three judges who are now capable of overturning Rowe, which could ultimately strengthen what is already a strong bond between evangelical voters and the Republican Party, Du Mez Bridge Michigan said.

“There’s a sense of gratitude, to be honest,” she said. “There is a feeling, ‘Finally they have done something for us, and we owe them our gratitude and our voices in the future.’

But Republican voters already seem highly motivated for the 2022 election, said Chuba, a questionnaire. He said it was not yet clear to what extent the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion would motivate Democrats or independents.

Republicans have been “very successful” in “marginalizing” abortion policies, doing things like tightening funding rules, Chuba said. “But we have never dealt with the central question of whether to allow it or not. And here we are with this decision of the Supreme Court. “

State and national opinion polls consistently show that most support some form of legal abortion. More than 67 percent of Michigan voters support keeping Rowe against Wade, reports January poll from Glengarif.

Nearly 66 percent of Michigan voters also want to repeal the 1931 law that banned abortion if it was reinstated, according to the same poll. Only “strong Republicans,” those inclined to vote in primary elections, have offered broad support for a total ban on legal abortion.

Support for legal abortion is also much higher among independent voters: 71 percent have expressed a desire to keep Rowe and lift the old ban.

“We always like to talk about Republicans and Democrats, and we always forget that 22 percent of independents are at the center,” Chuba said. “And these are the people who decide the election in Michigan.”

“Abortion policy”

The level of abortions has generally declined in recent decades, despite legal access. But rates have risen slightly in Michigan each of the past five years.

Suppliers from Michigan said they had 29,669 abortions in 2020, the highest total since 1996, but 40 percent less than the time when there were 49,098 abortions in 1987. government data. The vast majority of abortions in Michigan – 89 percent – ended the pregnancy at 12 weeks or less, long before the viability of the fetus, that medical experts say, usually about 23 or 24 weeks.

The Mississippi Act, which is now in the Supreme Court, prohibits abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, which directly challenges the standards of previous viability set in Rowe.

The court questions and comments during the December oral debate proved to be “very favorable to lifeguards,” said Genevieve Marnan, Michigan’s law director for the right to life.

There is a good chance the judges will “repeal Rowe v. Wade and send the decision back to the states,” Marnna predicted, telling Bridge that she was “confident” that Michigan’s 1931 ban would be reinstated.

The 91-year law, which is based on an even older statute of 1846, will make it crime for doctors in Michigan to have an abortion if necessary to save the life of a pregnant woman.

More than 40 Republicans currently serving in the Michigan Legislature have signed legal reports asking the Supreme Court to overturn Rowe, along with six of the seven current Republicans in the Michigan Congress – all but U.S. Representative Fred Upton, R-St . Joseph.

“The Mississippi case gives the court an opportunity to get rid of abortion policy, as Congress and the state have demonstrated that they are willing and able to address the issue in ways that reflect different American perspectives and are based on the science of fetal development. and mother’s health, ”the lawyers said Republicans in Congress wrote in a legal statement against Rowe.

“It has long been time for this court to return lawmakers to lawmakers.”

Whitmer and Nessel, the top Democrats in the Michigan government, joined colleagues in 22 other states urging judges to support Rowe, arguing in a legal briefing that bans on electoral abortions that were previously viable should remain unconstitutional.

The current precedent of the Supreme Court “pursues a line that respects the interests of the state, while preserving the ability of women to make one of the most important, intimate and properly private decisions she will ever face,” wrote the Attorney General of the Democratic Party.

Michigan one of the eight states with an early ban that could be reinstated after the Supreme Court is overturned, according to the Gutmacher Institute, a research organization that supports legal access to abortion. Dozens of other states have recently passed laws that will take effect and ban most abortions. Nine other states have restrictions on abortion that can be reversed.

If abortion is banned in Michigan, a woman living in the Market will have to travel more than five hours and three hundred miles to find legal access to Illinois. The woman in Traverse City would have a slightly shorter ride – about four hours and 280 miles – to Indiana if the Republican governor of that state and the Republican-led legislature did not subsequently restrict abortion.

“For women who fail to do so, laws banning abortion to viability will lead to significantly worse health outcomes and reduced socio-economic opportunities,” Nessel and other Democratic prosecutors general said in a statement to the Supreme Court. “There is no good reason to do this damage.”

“God put them in this moment”

Although a Supreme Court ruling could change the 2022 election cycle, abortion policy is already having a significant impact on state races.

Soldano, a chiropractor from the Kalamazoo district who is so far the only Republican governor hoping to sign a petition to qualify for the primary vote in August, made national news last month, speaking out against abortion for women who have been raped.

Even women who are raped should “acknowledge that God set them up at this time” and avoid abortions because “this little child in them could become the next president, perhaps the next person to change humanity,” Saldano said. right podcast.

The comments were “a disgusting, dangerous attack on women’s control over our own bodies and lives,” said Lawrence Butler, president of the Emily List, a national organization that helps liberal women win elections.

But Soldano doubled, saying he was “not ashamed” of his comments and called the media attention “great news” for his campaign.

While some rivals criticized his reports, other Republican candidates, such as Craig, a former Detroit police chief, accepted similar positionssaying that abortion should be allowed only if continued childbearing endangers the woman’s life. Dixon, a conservative media outlet in the Muskegon area, says she is “a candidate for life – without exception».

Republican Attorney General candidates opposing Rowe v. Wade went on to debate on Friday, signaling widespread opposition to Supreme Court interference in other cultural issues previously addressed at the state level, including birth control.

У forum of candidates Depernay and Leonard, contenders for the 2018 Attorney General’s Office, have said they oppose the landmark 1965 Supreme Court ruling that banned states from banning contraceptives. Berman, who is currently a state legislator, said he was “all about state rights” but was unfamiliar with the details of the contraceptive case.

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